When asked lately if Max Fried will return to the Braves, I responded on social media as follows:
“I had no doubt that Freddie [Freeman] would come back.” About a week into the offseason of last year, I began to doubt that [Dansby] Swanson would return. I’m thinking that Max’s time with the Braves is coming to an end this season. Thus, next week, he’ll most likely sign a 20-year contract.
I was making a joke. Fried will never sign a 20-year contract. However, I was not kidding when I said that this next season would be his final one with the Braves.
Was it nice to see the Braves escape arbitration with Fried for a third consecutive year by giving him a one-year, $15 million deal on Friday? Yes. However, that won’t have an impact on the left-hander’s possible large payout when he becomes a free agent at the end of this season.
Could Fried get an extension from the Braves to keep him from becoming a free agent? Yes. However, you need to consider both parties’ motivations.
As you may recall, I predicted in a recent newsletter that Fried will be this year’s National League Cy Young Award winner. The lefty has a good chance of becoming the first Braves pitcher to win this title since Tom Glavine did in 1998 if he stays healthy. In two out of the last four seasons, he has placed among the top five vote getters.
Forecasted well-being has always been a concern for Fried, who turns 30 on Thursday. This got more problematic last year, as the veteran Braves player was only able to make 14 starts due to inflammation in his left forearm. Throughout the last two months of the season, he stayed healthy. However, it’s important to consider how high and how long a team should go with a seasoned pitcher in this age of extremely lucrative long-term deals.
The Phillies signed Aaron Nola to a seven-year, $172 million contract in November. Since the beginning of 2021, Nola has made 96 starts and has a 4.09 ERA. His 3.31 FIP over this time suggests that he would have performed better against a more formidable defense.
Fried has compiled a 2.71 ERA and a 3.02 FIP across 72 starts inside this same three-season stretch. While Nola’s longevity is undoubtedly valuable, Fried has been the more effective pitcher over this time.
He therefore has a decent chance of receiving a contract that is equal to or more than the one offered to Nola, who turned pro, if he stays fit for the following season.
o Should he maintain his fitness for the following season, there’s a strong possibility he’ll receive a contract that matches or surpasses that of Nola, who turned 30 in June.
The average yearly value of Nola’s deal is $24.6 million. Baseball evaluators predicted that Fried would receive a contract akin to Carlos Rodón’s six-year, $162 million ($27 million AAV) deal from the Yankees around this time last offseason.
Rodón earned a 6.85 ERA over 14 starts for New York last season. The fact that the 31-year-old pitcher’s contract has just five years and $135 million left should make Yankees supporters happy.
There’s always a chance that Fried and the Braves will talk about a contract later this year, but right now doesn’t seem like the appropriate moment.