Tennessee travels to face a Texas A&M squad that appears to be getting comfortable in order to try to maintain its supremacy in the SEC.
The Aggies have triumphed in four of their last five games, including last week’s thrilling victory over Florida. After taking care of business in Missouri, they now aim to defeat the Vols in a big game that will probably win the tournament.
Tennessee, however, comes in riding a two-game winning run after defeating Kentucky 103 last Saturday at Rupp Arena.
In front of a boisterous Reed Arena at home, will Texas A&M pull off the unexpected victory? Or will Tennessee’s strength on defense and physicality prove to be too much?
Below, I break down the game and offer my best wager.
Tennessee’s continued status as one of the SEC’s premier teams is one thing that never changes.
The Vols, led by Rick Barnes, are off to a commanding 17-5 start to the season. The team is ranked sixth in Kenpom. Tennessee has rarely had problems, save from an unexpected setback at home to South Carolina, mostly because to their fierce defense.
Tennessee has a top-10 2-point defense and is ranked seventh in adjusted defensive efficiency. Jonas Aidoo, a 6-foot-11 junior who has developed into a superb rim protector, is largely responsible for that. In SEC play, he has the third-highest block rate and has at least two blocks in each of the last seven games.
Unlike many other teams in the conference, this one lacks elite size outside of Aidoo. However, they are a very gifted and athletic group on defense. The Vols lead the conference in steal rate and rank 12th nationally in Open 3 Rate Allowed (15.8%).
Tennessee is ranked fifth in the nation for halfcourt efficiency and eleventh for pick-and-roll efficiency by ShotQuality. Yes, and over at the edge? They come in second!
Cutting and attempting to create a defensive shift and open looks from the outside are the best ways to defeat this club. The Vols are 33rd in the country in terms of 3-point shooting allowed, but 260th in terms of 3-point rate allowed. So, even though there are many looks, the most are of poor quality.
Nevertheless, you may make Tennessee give up second chances, particularly when Aidoo isn’t playing.
Dalton Knecht is the offensive player on the opposing end of the court. He is fourth in the SEC in turnover rate, having taken 37% of Tennessee’s shots while on the court and making no mistakes. In seven of his last eight games, Knecht has scored 25 points or more, solidifying his place in discussions for Player of the Year.
With the exception of Knecht, this offense has had trouble from the outside. Despite his improved shooting, Santiago Vescovi has not touched the ball much since Knecht moved to Knoxville. The Vols make around 40% of their 3-point shots.
The only weakness in the offense is that, despite Knecht being the leader and a superb scorer, they don’t often attack the rim. 22% of their offense comes from midrange or perimeter shots, which are generally ineffective.
During his time at A&M, Buzz Williams has never been able to put together an offensive that is above average, and this season is no exception.
The Aggies are among the worst 3-point shooting teams in the nation, ranking 349th in eFG% throughout the nation. They also don’t often make money at the charity stripe, with the exception of Wade Taylor IV, the celebrity.
Although it’s not a nice sight to behold, the Aggies have performed well enough in Joe Lundardi’s most recent bracketology study to warrant an at-large bid.
The cause of this?
physicality.
In terms of offensive rebounding rate, Texas A&M leads the country, led once again by Andersson Garcia. In every conference game thus far, he has pulled down more offensive rebounds than three. We have seen players like Tyrece Radford and Solomon Washington become into second-chance producers despite Henry Coleman’s inconsistent play.
Taylor leads the offensive in this way. Though he faces difficulties when playing from the outside, the junior is one of the best all-around players. In terms of steal rate, he is second in SEC play and takes roughly 36% of the shots made while on the court. All bar one of the conference games have seen Taylor score more than 15 points.
This group stays close to the free-throw line and doesn’t turn the ball over. It’s frequently a violent slugfest, which is exactly the kind of match that A&M wants to be involved in. The seventh-highest pick-and-roll rate in the nation is employed by the Aggies in an effort to create isolation and/or mismatch opportunities.
In conference play, the Aggies have improved their defense. They have an exceptional rate of limiting second-chance opportunities and rank as the fourth-most efficient defense in the SEC. The problem has been with the Aggies’ long ball defense, as they are 346th in the nation in terms of 3-point percentage allowed.
The reason for that is that Texas A&M forces opponents to attack from above by playing beneath screens. Rather than give up an inside opening, the Aggies would forfeit a more ineffective appearance.
The problem? Rivals have made good shots from three. They are ranked 212th in the country for allowed 3-pointers made.
The Aggies rank third in the SEC in turnover rate during league play. Texas A&M’s tenacity and athleticism will push you to make mistakes, but they’ll also use those mistakes to create quick-strike transition offense that will both A) draw fouls and B) make up for an ineffective half-court offense.
This location is ideal for holding your nose.
Texas A&M has one of the worst offenses in the Power Conference and is ridiculously awful at 3-point shooting.
However, in the upcoming weeks, you should anticipate a positive regression of some kind.
ShotQuality predicts positive regression in all offensive categories, including post-ups and free throws, with a predicted 7% increase from the outside in the lead position.
Though it won’t happen right away, Saturday presents an excellent opportunity for A&M to win. Thanks to Aidoo, Tennessee is very good near the rim; yet, the Vols should be wary of A&M’s aggressiveness on the glass.
Once more, Texas A&M leads the country in offensive rebounding, and the Vols are ranked 168th in terms of defensive rebounding. It’s going to be a drag out slugfest with a few three-pointers because the Aggies won’t throw the ball over and lose the game that way.
On Saturday, there will be a boisterous and passionate home crowd. Texas A&M would probably secure a spot in the NCAA Tournament with a victory here as well.
Take the points with the home team, even if it will look bad.