Blake Snell has been linked to the San Francisco Giants a lot this summer since they seem like a good fit for the two-time Cy Young winner. That will go on until he gives a clear indication. What are some possible reasons why he wouldn’t fit in San Francisco?
Three reasons why the SF Giants might not be a good fit for Blake Snell
The left-handed pitcher has more upside than any of the other free-agent alternatives. Snell is coming off a fantastic 2023 season in which he made 32 appearances for the San Diego Padres and recorded a 2.25 ERA, 3.44 FIP, 1.18 WHIP, 11.7 K/9, and a 2.36 SO/W ratio.
Given that he posted a 1.89 ERA in 31 appearances with the Tampa Bay Rays in 2019—his first Cy Young season—it is difficult to declare 2023 a career year. Still, Snell’s season in a contract year could not have been any better.
Given that he posted a 1.89 ERA in 31 appearances with the Tampa Bay Rays in 2019—his first Cy Young season—it is difficult to declare 2023 a career year. Still, Snell’s season in a contract year could not have been any better.
The seasoned pitcher is about to turn thirty-one, which may worry some, but he still strikes out a lot of batters while showing off a good curveball, changeup, and slider in addition to a fastball that reaches the mid-90s.
Although it is difficult to predict with precision how a player’s velocity will decline with age, Snell should be able to sustain his velocity well into his 30s because to his strong 6-foot-4, 225-pound body. Even after all of that, the Giants would still have to take some things into account.
1. Command that is below average
Snell’s subpar command is perhaps the largest obstacle to San Francisco as a possible landing location. Even though the left-handed pitcher had fantastic results overall, in 2023 he lead MLB in walks with 99.
Shorter beginnings result from this since Snell typically has a high pitch count early in the game. In 2023, he only averaged 5.2 innings per start, which is consistent with his eight-year career total.
Snell’s 4.1 BB/9 rate since making his Rays debut in 2016 is impressive. Among pitchers with at least 1,000 career innings pitched, that would be by far the greatest percentage in baseball. With 992.2 innings, Snell is barely short of that threshold.
The two pitchers with the highest walk rates among active players with at least 1,000 innings pitched are Rich Hill (3.5 BB/9) and Lucas Giolito (3.4 BB/9). Although their careers have been enjoyable, there is considerable annual performance variation. At some point, Snell’s command needs to get better, or else his fastball velocity and the rest of his pitch mix might regress, making the latter part of his contract difficult.
However, in 2023, the Giants had the best BB/9 rate in baseball, at 2.5. Pitchers that can command their pitches in all four strike zone quadrants and attack the ball are preferred by them. Snell’s addition would go against the team’s pitching philosophy.
Three reasons why the SF Giants might not be a good fit for Blake Snell
2. Concerns about longevity and worklands
The Giants are not the only team that has this reasoning. That would go against the Giants’ philosophy of pitching with below-average command, but some organizations are more tolerant of it. Having someone like Blake Snell, who has won a Cy Young award in every league, to support you helps.
That being said, Snell’s workload ceiling is usually quite low, so the Giants and other suitors need to be wary of it. In his eight-year career, the left-handed pitcher has only completed at least 150 innings twice; the second instance was in 2023. To be fair, he did pitch 180 innings the previous season, which is a complete season for a pitcher in the modern game.
Given that he has never achieved 200 innings or more in a season, it would be difficult to predict that he will. Though recent history might seem to suggest contrary, it might alter.
Snell averaged 5.2 innings per start in 2023. That is slightly more than his career average of roughly 5.1 innings pitched in a start. His below-average command contributes to the fact that he rarely gives a team length. Early in the game, pitch counts are frequently high. How does a pitcher’s age affect a characteristic like this? Does this imply that by the time his next deal expires, he will only be averaging 4.2 innings per start?
Like with many pitchers, though, there has also been a deliberate attempt to shield him from the third turn in the lineup. Snell is not a conventional workhorse, but he is an interesting pitcher to watch and would draw crowds to the ballpark.