One of the Atlanta Braves’ top players may soon experience a change of fortune, according to the team.
It can’t possibly be much worse given the beginning of his career, can it?
With an ERA of 3.86—which would have been the highest of any Cy Young winner since the award’s creation—Braves starter Spencer Strider finished “only” in fourth place in the NL Cy Young voting despite dominating MLB in 2023—leading the league in strikeouts (281), wins (20), and winning percentage (.800).
Much of it is the result of luck, notably unfavorable luck.
When balls were placed into play, Strider actually led the National League in Fielding Independent Pitching (2.85), suggesting that he was having misfortune.
Shortly referred to as “FIP,” Fielding Independent Pitching is a variant of ERA that solely considers batted balls that are left up to the defense, meaning that it only counts strikeouts, walks, hit-by-pitches, and home runs.
A pitcher’s FIP exceeding their ERA typically indicates that the average number of balls they are hitting is higher than usual for the league.
Not only has that been happening for Spencer Strider, but it has been happening frequently.
The biggest disparity between Strider’s FIP (2.48) and ERA (3.37) over his first 50 starts, according to Codify Baseball, has occurred since baseball moved to overhand throwing in 1884.
One hundred and forty years is that.
Defense, sequencing, and luck are the three main causes of discrepancies in FIP and ERA, according to research done at FanGraphs, and it appears like none of them are on Strider’s side.
The function of defense in batted ball contests
When attempting to explain the problem, this one seems the most logical, doesn’t it? A pitcher is statistically less likely to have plays go in their favor when facing a bad defense than when facing a “average” defense. During Strider’s first two years in the league, was this a problem?
It was, judging by team and individual ranks!
According to Fielding Bible’s “Defensive Runs Saved” report for 2023, Atlanta ranked 15th overall with 16 DRS. Examining the details, Atlanta’s biggest problems were balls hit to shortstops.
Regarding Ronald Acuña Jr.’s defense, what did we say? that due to his bad first reaction and burst, he greatly underperformed on simple plays? That is supported by a quick glance at Strider’s hit chart, which shows that right field has a far smaller circle of outs than either center or left (also, all four of Strider’s permitted triples have been hit to right field).
Furthermore, some balls that would be outs with a greater right field jump or a more neutral centerfield location fall between Harris and Acuña, demonstrating the effects of Michael Harris II shading over to assist the leftfielder.
(Or, as Jake requested back in September, a more aggressive usage of defensive replacements.)
According to FanGraphs study, defense can influence a pitcher’s ERA/FIP discrepancy by up to 40%. Strider is a flyball pitcher, and this is clear when looking at his spray chart.
(I’m also finding that there are a lot of green dots behind second base. However, given that Ozzie missed a lot of time in 2022 and had a positive DRS, I’m speculating that Vaughn Grissom had some influence there. Further investigation is required.)
Although sequencing is important, most of it comes down to luck.
It’s still only half the picture, as including the effects of sequencing increases the overall share of the responsibility from 40% to 50%.
(It’s crucial to remember that this is situational hitting and game script, not pitcher sequencing. Since Strider currently only has two main pitches, his pitch sequencing isn’t very variable, but players can still adjust their strategies to fit the demands of the occasion. When deadlocked in the bottom of the ninth with a runner on third and with two outs, you don’t swing for the fences because a base hit there wins the game.)
That means 50% is up to chance. Fortunately, there are a few techniques to verify that. Last season, the MLB average for batting average on balls in play was.300. With a BABIP of.304, Strider’s two-year sample was just slightly above that.
However, it’s evident from examining his results that Strider’s luck plays a big role in his wins and loses; his BABIP in victories is.242, but it’s.337 in no decisions and a ridiculous.480 in losses.
I’m not sure if this is a statistically significant number yet because he has only lost ten regular season games and only had twenty-three no decisions in his career. However, some of this may be sample size noise.
(And I believe that may be the case as well; for his career, Fried’s three BABIPs in those circumstances are.259/.325/.372, which are comparable to Strider’s but not quite as severe.)
However, Strider’s other luck metrics indicate that he’s simply had some unlucky spells that should soon level off.
His BABIP is.446 in his starts when the Braves score zero to two runs (which isn’t many, really; did you watch that offense last year?). It follows that he is equally unfortunate with balls put in play when he is not receiving run support.
(Aside: The #6 hitters against him have the best stats in the lineup, and he has also allowed incredibly hard contact late in the order. They’re taking batting practice.262/.326/.437 versus Strider with five home runs and a BABIP of.431. It’s just an odd tendency, but there are 138 plate appearances.)