The Atlanta Braves and their historically deep MLB roster are getting love from projection systems
Life is wonderful for the Atlanta Braves, but it’s not always that way.
After winning more than 100 games in two consecutive seasons and winning the National League East for the previous six, Atlanta’s strong regular seasons have been followed by disappointing postseason performances. The team was eliminated in the Divisional Series by the Philadelphia Phillies twice in a row.
Will things be different in 2024?
According to FanGraphs’ 2024 postseason forecasts, the Braves have a 24.9% probability of winning the 2024 World Series, which is among the greatest World Series chances in the website’s history.
Of course, though, there’s still no assurance that you’ll raise the Commissioner’s Trophy at the conclusion of the campaign. The Houston Astros (103 wins) in 2018 and the Los Angeles Dodgers (106 wins) in 2021 were the previous two teams to be in the same stratosphere, and they both fell in their respective Championship Series during those years.
With the Dodgers in second place at 16.9% and the Astros in third place at 10.8%, those two clubs are lagging behind Atlanta in the World Series chances.
Overall, expectations for Atlanta’s regular season are high; the team is favored to make the postseason 98.6% of the time (with 87.8% of that probability coming from winning the division). Postseason probability are more than 90% just for Atlanta and Los Angeles.
Thanks to an offseason centered around increasing their chances of making it farther in the postseason, Atlanta has established themselves as the clear favorite, according to anGraphs writer Ben Clemens, who wrote their takeaways article:
Indeed, the Braves are absurd. They are, in our opinion, the baseball team of the year. Of course, their offense is absurd. In 2023, they set the majors ablaze. However, with Max Fried playing the entire season and Chris Sale contributing some significant innings, their pitching should be stronger this year. Even their bullpen, which is now among the best in baseball, was strengthened. This club is simply packed from top to bottom; last year wasn’t an anomaly.
In the NL East, nobody else is really contending for the top spot. That’s not because the Phillies are bad; in fact, we believe their top-ranked offense increases the likelihood of them making the postseason. However, during the regular season at least, they simply cannot match Atlanta. The Braves seem to agree as well, as their summer was centered around improving their pitching in the postseason. I also like watching the Marlins vs. Mets game in the midst of the division; we believe both clubs will reach a record of about.500 in quite different methods.