Analysis: The Bears coaching staff could derive hidden benefits from a decision to draft Caleb Williams over going ahead with Justin Fields.
The number of reporters and pundits stating that they think the Bears will select Caleb Williams in the draft has seemingly increased dramatically over the past few weeks.
The Tribune’s Brad Biggs, ESPN’s Adam Schefter, Jeremy Fowler, and Matt Miller, as well as NFL Network’s Tom Peliserro and Daniel Jeremiah, all agreed with SI.com’s Albert Breer.
Though they are very competent to make such an observation, these are merely their opinions.
It’s not all in agreement. To be honest, the least persuaded seem shocked by the latest revelation that Kliff Kingsbury is attending the Commanders, which is close to Williams’s former high school in the Washington, DC, area. Only 78% of the mocks that have been reported in thus far had Williams listed as the No. 1 choice by the Bears in the NFL Mock Draft Database. From previous week, that represents a decrease of around 11%.
Other than Kingsbury’s decision to travel to Washington, nothing significant has changed in the draft outlook since last week. Kingsbury needs a job, regardless of the team or city.
Williams’s powerful, accurate arm, quick delivery, and ability to throw to space or predict when receivers will open up are his clear team advantages. Carrying it downfield is his last-ditch weapon as he rushes to pass.
Those are the clear advantages. A few advantages are less evident.
Economical
The salary cap benefit has been thoroughly examined and proven to be irrefutable. The Bears don’t have to pay for a quarterback for at least three more years because to the so-called reset. Even though Fields gives them one more year at a reduced pay, the hidden advantage Williams has over the current Bears starter cannot be overcome by the Justin Fields crowd.
Ryan Poles would also benefit from the fact that Matt Eberflus and him would both be selecting this athlete in the draft. Regardless of how much they claim to like Fields, he is not one of their players. He received it by inheritance.
And lastly, there is this one little benefit that Eberflus and his team are unaware of. With Williams as quarterback, the Bears might keep Williams as head coach if they can’t finish the season with a record of at least 7-10. At the very least, Poles, management, and ownership would have to take it into account.
It’s not that it would be morally correct to give the staff more time to attempt to win with a rookie quarterback, but it’s a point a coach whose club was on the verge of victory might make. All they need is more time to acclimate a rookie quarterback.
Of course, the Houston Texans are a prime example of this, as a rookie guided them to the playoffs after joining a struggling franchise and organization with a new coaching staff.
There are innumerable other rookie quarterbacks who failed before succeeding, for every C.J. Stroud. As a rookie, even Peyton Manning was ripe for an interception.
Rookie Mistakes Result in Another Chance
Stroud was one of just 15 quarterbacks in history to take a rookie club all the way to the postseason. In the postseason, rookies had a 10-15 record as starters.
While no coach would openly admit that inexperience or youth may be used as an excuse for failure, it could certainly spark a heated discussion behind closed doors, particularly if the decision-makers are undecided about terminating the staff.
In their third season, the Bears are starting over with a new offense because management wants to see progress.
“First of all, our standard is always going to be to win the division and we’re starting to chip away at that,” Ryan Poles, our general manager, said. “I thought there was a chance to kind of split that in half and take three (divisional wins) there, which is what made the last game disappointing as well.
“We will always have those expectations. But we always have high standards for ourselves, and this team is prepared to move forward.”
A rookie quarterback provides a handy safety net for Poles and especially Eberflus to rely on in case things don’t work out as planned. This is one of the unstated benefits of selecting Williams in the first round.