The Atlanta Braves don’t have many unanswered questions heading into the 2024 season.
The Braves return almost their entire rotation from the previous season, with the exception of one lineup regular from MLB’s top offense. Who fills out the bench and how Atlanta sets up the bullpen appear to be the main concerns.
Oh, and Michael Harris II, the centerfielder, should bat.
With 37 home runs, 40 stolen bases, and a.295 batting average in his first two seasons, the third-year outfielder has been absolutely phenomenal. Additionally, he has primarily done so from the #9 spot in the order. In his rookie season of 2022, the team eased him into the lineup, and he declared that he felt comfortable batting from that position.
Harris has batted ninth in 152 of his 252 career games to date, amassing a lifetime line of.302/.336/.510 from the final position. Harris has batted in every other position after the nine hole, however he has only played in 27 games overall from any one position, with varying degrees of dominance from each:
First:.241/.241/.500 with 1 HR over 3 games
2nd: 16 games, 3 HRs, 5/7 SBs, and a.243/.284/.443 average
Third: Five matches,.100/.143/.100
Fourth: 1 game with 1 SB at.250/.250/.250
Sixth: 19 games,.375/.392/.611 w/ 3 HRs, 1/2 SBs; Fifth: 4 games,.294/.294/.412 w/ 1 SB
7th: 25 games, 4 HRs, 5/6 SBs, and a.266/.303/.468 average
9th: 152 games,.302/.336/.510 w/ 25 HRs, 23/25 SBs; 8th: 27 games,.318/.420/.482 w/ 1 HR, 4/4 SBs
Michael Harris’s case should be elevated in the hierarchy
The case for moving Harris up from ninth is based on maximizing his at-bats; over the course of a season, an average leadoff hitter is expected to receive almost 100 more plate appearances than an average #9 hitter, and the Braves lineup shown last year that it is anything from average.
Thanks to Atlanta frequently switching around the lineup, Ronald Acuña Jr. had an MLB-high 735 plate appearances from the leadoff position in the previous season.
Therefore, acquiring someone with a career is necessary to advance Harris.295 batting average more at-bats; any change up the order would be beneficial, as even the difference in at-bats between #6 and #9 over the course of a season is nearly fifty.
With Harris’s speed (he exceeded Acuña’s 28.0 ft/sec average last year, with an average of 28.8 ft/sec), hitting him in the #2 hole would provide Austin Riley and Matt Olson, who bat #3 and #4, with additional opportunities to score runs and steal bases.
In fact, a possible lineup for Atlanta may be as follows if they wanted to alternate lefties and righties in order to maximize both order speed and the three-batter minimum for all pitchers:
AcupÃa – RHH Harris – LHH Riley – RHH Olson – LHH Ozuna – RHH Switch Murphy – RHH Kelenic – LHH Arcia – RHH Albies – Equivalent
With Kelenic batting at the bottom of the lineup and Harris not having to lead off as the hitter before Ronald Acuña Jr., this lineup provides the twin benefits of giving Harris more at-bats while releasing pressure on Kelenic to produce.
(And we know it’s in the plan since manager Brian Snitker said that batting Kelenic towards the bottom third was the plan.)
The argument for Michael Harris II to bat ninth
However, there is fit to take into consideration when moving Harris, so it’s not just a case of “bat him second to maximize his at-bats.”
First, there are the demands of batting second in the lineup. According to MLB Statcast guru Mike Petriello, the #2 hitter has become more productive than any other position in the lineup, with a 114 OPS+ in 2023, five points higher than the #1, #3, or #4 hitters.
Even though he is a decent hitter, Michael Harris II might not be the ideal candidate for that position.
We’ll refer to Harris’s extremely distinct and completely unoptimized game as “Harrisball” because of this.
With a career walk rate of less than 5% (as opposed to the MLB average of 8.4%), Harris possesses a wRC+ of above 100, which is an uncommon combination. The total number of players who have accomplished this feat since 2000 is 29, indicating how rare it is.
True, there are some well-known players like Amed Rosario, Javier Baez, Yan Gomes, and Robinson Canó, but there are also notables like Ichiro Suzuki, Alex Rodriguez, and Alfonso Soriano.