With 307 longballs launched, the 2023 Atlanta Braves tied the 2019 Minnesota Twins for the most homeruns in a single MLB season.
In 2024, they are expected to be much better.
Matt Olson and Ronald Acuña Jr. are two players on MLB.com’s list of players who could lead the league in home runs this coming season. Both players are considered power threats who could set new records for home runs this season.
Ronald ranked third on the list, one spot ahead of designated hitter Shohei Ohtani of the Los Angeles Dodgers and outfielder Aaron Judge of the New York Yankees. Olson came in fourth.
In what ways might their 2024 electricity production differ?
Last year, Ronald ought to have hit more home homers.
In MLB.com’s instance, Acuña’s main argument was that, despite hitting 41 home runs in each of his two healthiest seasons (2023 and 2019), he underperformed.
Ronald concluded with “only” 41 home runs last year, a conversion percentage of 47.7%, despite hitting thirteen more barrels last year—a “batted ball event” at the ideal combination of exit velocity and launch angle to get a home run—than everyone else in baseball.
The broader the launch angle the BBE may have and yet be classified as a barrel, the harder the batted ball event. A barrel’s BBE at 98 mph is confined to a small range of 26 to 30 degrees, whereas its BBE at 116 mph can range from eight to 50 degrees.
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Despite having the highest max exit velocity in the league (121.2 mph) and the most barrels (86), Ronald failed to produce the predicted number of home runs from those balls. Ronald would have produced 51 or 52 home runs instead of his 41 from 86 barrels, as the average barrel to home run conversion rate is just around 60%, according to research from the fantasy baseball website PitcherList.
In all honesty, I’m not sure why this underperformance isn’t explained by “small sample size shenanigans”; Truist Park is a hitter’s park with respect to home run production, ranking ninth in terms of homer park factors at 109, which makes it 9% more likely to produce home runs than a “average” ballpark.
Matt Olson is as a result of his ongoing development and a lineup adjustment.
The league-leading 54 home runs Olson hit in 2023 (a team single-season record) are a result of increased stats around his blasts, including career highs in barrel rate (16.4%) and hard hit rate (55.5%).
Olson’s projected 2024 home run total of all baseball is predicated on the assumption that he maintains this upward trend and flourishes in the cleanup position in the lineup, where he performed noticeably better than when he was ranked second behind Ronald:
If Olson kept up his 10.2% HR rate with a full season of batting cleanup, that projects out to 62 homers.
And in fact, MLB.com speculates that Olson’s ceiling isn’t “lead the league in homers”, it’s “be the first NL player to hit more than 60 homers in a season since Barry Bonds hit 73 in 2001”.
Lofty praise for the Braves first baseman.
If you had to pick a Braves slugger to lead the league in homers, is it Acuña, Olson, or someone else not on this list? Let us know!