Today, Scott Merkin of MLB.com and Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times were among the reporters that heard White Sox general manager Chris Getz talk about some of the team’s intentions for the remainder of the winter and the upcoming season. Getz stated that while other teams have expressed a lot of interest in Dylan Cease, the Sox will not trade him unless they believe the transaction will improve the team. He stated that Chris Flexen is anticipated to open the season, and that Garrett Crochet will prepare to be a starter somewhere in the rotation. He stated that they are open to outside additions and do not currently have a reliable starting right fielder in the lineup.
The 28-year-old Cease has shown remarkable performance over the last three years and has gained a lot of traction in the trading market recently. This winter, his market has been home to teams like the Yankees, Orioles, Dodgers, Cardinals, Red Sox, Mets, Braves, and Reds. While some of those clubs have subsequently changed their strategies, there are still many in the industry who believe a trade involving the righty will happen before the season begins. However, the Sox believe they are not in a position to negotiate. Getz stated, “We’ve had [trade] talks regarding Dylan [Cease], but we won’t move someone unless there’s a benefit.”
The Sox are not have to move the righty right away if they choose not to because he is still under club control for the next two years. However, his trade worth is currently fixed, so it makes sense for them to accept the best deal they can find. They will only be promoting his services for a year and a half by the time the trade deadline arrives, and if some interested clubs withdraw, the pool of suitors may get smaller. The constant possibility of an injury depriving Cease of his trade value also exists.
Back in December, it was said that the Sox were waiting to see if interest in Cease increased when Yoshinobu Yamamoto signed and the teams that had passed on him changed their minds. With Yamamoto already signed to a deal with the Dodgers, the top free agents available are Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, while Cease is a top trade candidate. Pitchers Shane Bieber, Jesús Luzardo, and Corbin Burnes have also been linked to trade speculations, but it’s unknown if these clubs would entertain trade offers.
It’s possible that the Sox have been asking a premium price for Cease, which is why no deal has been completed as of yet. The talks appeared to come to an end when it was revealed last month that the Reds had requested four of the Sox’s best prospects. About a week following that story, the Reds reached an agreement to sign free agent Frankie Montas. It remains to be seen if the Sox will yield on that rather high asking price, or if another team will have to bite the bullet and accept it.
His enormous expertise is evident in both the asking price and the great degree of interest. He has taken 97 pitches over the last three seasons, with an earned run average of 3.54 and a 29.8% strikeout percentage. In those years, FanGraphs valued his wins above replacement total at 12.6, which ranked him seventh among all major league pitchers. In 2023, his ERA spiked to 4.58, although it doesn’t seem to be cause for alarm. Although his strikeout rate of 27.3% was marginally lower than in the previous two seasons, he was also hindered by his unlucky.330 batting average on balls in play and 69.4% strand rate. His 4.10 SIERA and 3.72 FIP imply that he was more like his former self than the ERA would imply.
His contractual condition makes him attractive in addition to his skill set. Cease is still in his arbitration years, but as a free agent, front-line starters may sign contracts worth nine figures. Matt Swartz of MLBTR projects that he will make $8.8MM in compensation. Before he is eligible for free agency after 2025, he is entitled for one more increase.